Tobias Carlisle,创始人

Tobias Carlisle是收购方Multiple®的创始人。他也是 收单机构基金®.

他最为人所知的是《亚马逊商业与金融》最新版本的作者 收购方的倍数:价值丰厚的亿万富翁如何击败市场,亚马逊畅销书 深层价值:为什么活动家、投资者和其他反对者争夺对亏损公司的控制权 (2014), 量化价值:自动化智能投资和消除行为错误的实践者指南 (2012)和 集中投资:全球最大集中价值投资者的策略 (2016). 他在投资管理、企业估值、上市公司公司治理和公司法方面拥有丰富的经验。

在2010年成立收购者基金的先行者之前,托拜厄斯曾是一家激进对冲基金的分析师、一家在澳大利亚证券交易所上市的公司的总顾问和一名公司咨询律师。作为一名专门从事并购的律师,他曾为美国、英国、中国、澳大利亚、新加坡、百慕大、巴布亚新几内亚、新西兰和关岛等多个行业的交易提供咨询。他毕业于澳大利亚昆士兰大学,获得法律学位(2001年)和商业学位(管理)(1999年)。

连接Tobias on 啁啾, LinkedIn脸谱网.

Johnny Hopkins,分析师

约翰尼·霍普金斯头球

约翰尼·霍普金斯(JohnnyHopkins)是一位金融分析师,专门研究深度价值股票,这里是收购方的倍数。他是一位深度价值投资者,总部位于澳大利亚墨尔本。

您可以在此处联系Johnny: johnny@acquirersmultiple.com

 

108评论 “关于我们”

  1. Hi Tobias,

    我刚刚注册了免费的screener,但正在考虑升级到paid。

    在这一点上,我设想我的策略是在第一年每月为12只股票投资组合增加一只股票。通过每月选择所选领域中最低的TAM股票(尚未持有),这种策略是否可以构建一个价值比所有股票都更低的投资组合,从而随着时间的推移,跑赢大市?

    此外,我质疑非美国股票。有时,在其他筛选程序中,我想知道货币换算是否总是可靠的,以及其他国家的会计惯例是否足够不同,以至于财务信息可能不会总是以数据库的严格格式记录下来。我理解国际多元化的好处,但我仍在考虑将我的选择仅限于TAM最低的美国总部公司。我对你的想法很感兴趣。

    多年来,我断断续续地关注格林巴克,但直到今天我看到它在寻找阿尔法时被引用,我才意识到你的TAM工作。我很好奇。

    最美好的祝福。

    布鲁斯·穆里森

    1. 你好,布鲁斯,

      谢谢你的留言。

      每个月增加1-2只股票没有问题。一旦你完全投资,投资组合的表现应该与筛选投资组合大体一致。

      避免美国存托凭证或非美国股票完全没有问题。这很常见。我之所以将其包括在内,是因为在历史上,当ADR包括在内时,模型投资组合的表现优于其他投资组合,但我理解为什么你可能对持有它们感到不舒服。这不是问题。

      你能告诉我你在寻找阿尔法的时候在哪里看到的吗?

      Best,

      托拜厄斯

  2. Hi Tobias,

    谢谢你的回复。

    鉴于美国存托凭证的历史表现,我必须重新考虑我对其的担忧。我相信我看到你排除了中国公司,这在一定程度上缓解了我的担忧。

    我曾认为,以每月最低的TAM股票构建投资组合,可能会在一次测试中超过30或20只股票,但代价是波动性更大。我的想法是,实际上,我将拥有12个一股投资组合,随着时间的推移,这些组合可以从价值最深的TAM股票中获得额外的阿尔法。

    我知道TAM的构造与魔法公式不同,但我在你的免费筛选程序中看到了当前前30名的对应关系。上升的30个TAM也正是下降的神奇公式收益率。情况总是这样吗?如果是这样,为什么不使用神奇公式收益率,跳过MF双重质量排名?我意识到我提出这个问题的数据非常有限。也许整个数据库中最好的曼氏金融收益率将是与最好的TAM完全不同的股票。

    I note you include MLPs. Is this a difference from the Magic formula universe?

    The Seeking Alpha article is by author “Inner Scorecard” and is titled “Being a Value Investor Without Doing the Work Part II: Alternatives to the Magic Formula”. It was published May 25 at 10:15 a.m.

    Thanks again for your attention to your followers’ questions. I hope you have a lot of success with this site.

    布鲁斯

    1. 你好,布鲁斯,

      As a general rule, the cheaper the AM, the better the performance. In practice, there’s a lot of randomness, so it pays to diversify. Pat O’Shaughnessy did some interesting research examining exactly your question (monthly rolling 1-100 holdings) here. He initially found the buying the best 5 gave the best returns, and the best 15 gave the best risk adjusted returns. (I have seen some revised research of his that suggests the best one gives the highest returns and the best 25 give the best risk adjusted returns). A handful every month may give you the best of both worlds.

      The AM operating earnings and EBIT/EV (the Magic Formula Earnings Yield) will mostly coincide, however, they are constructed differently. Operating earnings is built from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is built from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible. Most importantly, it excludes special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–which ensures that these earnings are related only to operations. EBIT will catch special earnings unless it is specifically backed out. Operating earnings is the better metric. Great question. (You’ve got a good eye!)

      The screeners include MLPs. Again, only because I want the broadest universe possible, and excluding them has led to underperformance.

      希望有帮助。

      Best,

      托拜厄斯

  3. Dear Tobias,

    Thanks for the great response – very comprehensive.

    I need to trust the universe and take what it gives me – ADRs, MLPs, etc.

    I will be signing up soon and also need to get your book. I am asking questions mostly blind, without the book.

    My plan is a one stock portfolio each month for a year, then review monthly according to your rules. I am not too concerned about volatility. (At least that’s what I say now, before it happens! ) If I keep this up long enough, we will have a real world test of the one stock method.

    Thanks again for taking the time to share your knowledge.

    布鲁斯

  4. Tobias,

    This is my last comment / question – I know you are busy.

    I read your link to the O’Shaughnessy research after I had sent my last reply. It gives me pause that the one-stock looks so inferior. I wonder if you have a link to the revised research you mention, showing one- stock most profitable.

    My plan may be different than his. I would not repeat a stock, where I surmise that he might, if it were on top of his ranking two months in a row. I would instead choose the second ranked stock, if the same stock I had already bought were still first. That way I would definitely have twelve stocks after a year, where I don’t think he necessarily would. I’m not sure of this though, as I am not sure I understand his exact procedure.

    从他的表格中可以看出,在最差的股票中,有一只股票的回报率最高,这似乎不是来自五只股票,而是来自四只股票,四只股票从第二到第五,从而消除了排名靠前的名字。

    如果修订后的研究结果令人信服,这一切都将被排除在外,但当“进一步研究”结果发生巨大变化时,我总是担心这一点。谁知道该相信什么。

    我现在将淡出幕后,注册,投入一些真正的钱来工作,看看会发生什么。

    最美好的祝福。

    布鲁斯

    1. 你好,布鲁斯,

      修订后的研究将出现在我的新书《集中价值投资》中,该书将于9个月后出版,所以我现在还不能分享。

      你的计划可能不同,这是对的。他测试了持有一只股票等的结果,但在滚动的基础上进行了测试,以消除任何季节性偏差。你的结果将更接近12只股票的投资组合。

      我认为在20到30之间,你会得到最好的风险调整结果,这在投资界是相当标准的。当你集中精力时,结果会持续上升,但会变得更加不稳定。

      希望有帮助。

      Best,

      托拜厄斯

  5. 你好,托拜厄斯,
    两本书都读得很好,从中学习了很多。
    我刚刚也订阅了你的网站。

    想问一下所有可投资股票的筛选名单上的NSU。
    根据guru focus,它的M分数为-1.07,这表明它可能是一个操纵者。

    你能解释一下吗?因为在你的书中,这是需要检查的筛选之一。

    谢谢
    海什姆

    1. Hi Haytham,

      Thanks for the note. We use the suite of QV forensic accounting measures looking for earnings manipulation, and fraud. We rank on the combined score and kick out the worst. Beneish’s M-Score gives a probability of manipulation. NSU’s M-SCore, at -1.07, is slightly higher than the index of non-manipulators at -2.22. NSU’s red flag is in its DSRI-Days’ Sales in Receivables Index. YoY Sales jumped more than threefold from $155mm to $555mm, while Net Receivables fell from $57mm to $32mm, giving it a score over 5 on both the 5- and 8-variable versions of the DSRI, which is odd (non-manipulators should be at 1.031 on the 8-variable version). While Sales and Receivables behavior like that might be unusual for a manufacturing or service business, it’s not necessarily fatal for a commodity miner, where big swings in the underlying commodity and mineral finds mean Sales and Receivables are less predictable year-to-year. NSU was not knocked out by the other fraud and earnings manipulation variables, so it remains in the model. Still, it’s a red flag for a reason, and it’s worth watching. The fundamental data is run weekly, so the situation might change, but it’s within bounds for now.

  6. Tobias,

    I have a question for you regarding buying into a diversified portfolio based upon your screeners.

    Let’s assume that someone buys 2 companies per month for a total of 24 companies over a 12 month period. Is it better for buy the cheapest acquirers multiple available every month, whether or not that company is found on the small, all or large cap screener or is it better to stick to one screener (either the small, all or large) according to your process/system long-term?

    Lastly, does your additional screening based upon cheapness, risk and earnings cause one to experience different results than what you found in your back testing research for low growth value stocks?

    Thanks.

    1. Hi Jeremy,

      1. Cheaper is better. The best screeners for that purpose are the All Investable Screener or the Small and Micro Cap because they don’t overlap.
      2. Yes. I anticipate that it will improve it.

      Best,

      托拜厄斯

  7. HI Tobias,

    This is an awesome website! Just out of curiosity, do you guys plan to provide such screeners for international markets as well? Given that emerging markets have been trading at overall low valuations, there will be more opportunities to discover based on TAM. For example markets like Singapore and Hong Kong which have strong regulations and reliable data reporting.

  8. Tobias:

    I have read both books with admiration.

    I have started a portfolio 2 weeks ago with 29 stocks.

    Three have left the screener, KORS, MOV, and MU, and are up 8.58%, 25.3%, and 16.3% respectively. Do I sell or wait the year. They are in a tax free Roth .

    谢谢

    Roger Stephens

    1. Hi Roger,

      I’m not sure what approach you’re using, but you either hold until the positions have reached your estimate of value, or you hold until your next regular rebalance. Those are good returns in a very short period of time. You’ll typically get better returns holding for longer (say ~ 1 year or more).

      托拜厄斯

  9. Good morning Tobias,

    I was wondering if you have any plans to calculate and publish the Acquirers Multiple on the ASX (Australian Stock Exchange) in the near future. I’d be interested in adopting a strategy such as yours in Australia- assuming that the results are similar to the USA.

    Thanks and regards
    Nick

  10. In my country, the maximum tax rate on capital gains and foreign dividends is going up to almost 29%.

    这引发了两个问题。如果股票持有多年,你有没有看过结果?即使只持有2年,上限收益也会下降到14.5%左右。

    您是否重复了筛选,但仅限于股息收益率低的股票(底部50%、底部33%、底部25%或无股息)?

  11. 我应该更正上面的帖子。在我国,资本利得的最高税率几乎上升到29%;然而,外国股息的最高税率将上升到近58%。

  12. 我有我的免费帐户,我要加入付款注册。
    企业价值/息税前利润法(TAM)看起来很有趣,但对我来说,还有一个薄弱环节:提取
    1、TAM如何避免或至少尝试?
    2、您的财务得分(您自己的Piotroski变量)是否属于TAM的一部分?在你的筛分机里是有条件的吗?

    1. 嗨,米格尔,屏幕上显示了Beneish、Piotroski和Altman得分,以及其他价值和风险指标,然后再根据收购方的倍数进行排名。避免提款的最佳方法是用指数对冲。现在可能是个好时机,因为市场价格昂贵,最受欢迎的趋势信号(黄金/死亡十字和200移动平均线)正在下跌。

  13. 非常感谢您的快速回答。根据你的回答,我可以推断Piotroski、Altman过滤器有助于避免杠杆率过高或财务状况不佳的公司。我意识到,没有人能够为公司的未来提供绝对的安全,有了这些过滤器,我的要求就可以通过了。
    Sadly I haven’t understood your explanation about how to avoid the drawdowns (or at least the worse drawdowns) hedging with an Index. If we agree that the market is expensive and the trend signals look that are going down…wich is the right behaviour for a non pro value investor like me? Keep me out of the markets until the trend looks to change ? Taking short positions?
    Thank’s for your answer, congratulations for your books and happy and healthy new year for all the suscribers from a small sunny spanish island in the middle of the mediterranean sea.

    1. Thanks for the kind words. I’m not sure what your comfort level is, but for long only investors fearful about the level of the index, Graham recommended being no less than 25% invested. If you’re prepared to hedge, you can be fully invested long, and hedged. One way to do so is to sell short an index ETF.

  14. Hello Mr. Carlisle,

    I just watched an interview online where you mentioned an etf coming from you based on these principles – any news as to a launch date?

    I’m Canadian – any plans to publish the Acquirers Multiple for Canada?

    谢谢

    Jim Maron

  15. Hi Tobias,

    Two quick questions:

    1. In the “Four steps to implementing a quantitative value investment strategy” FAQ post, you state:

    “Hold winners for one year plus one day to maximize after-tax returns, then sell. If a stock is up, and remains in the screener after one year and one day, hold until it leaves the screener. If a stock is down and remains in the screener, hold. If a stock is down and leaves the screener, sell. You should check the portfolios to see if a rebalance is necessary no less than quarterly.”

    我的问题涉及到“如果一只股票下跌并离开筛选程序,卖出。”我最近(在过去的一个月内)购买了WNR,它似乎已经离开了筛选程序(我认为这是因为其他股票由于最近几周的暴跌而到达)。这是否意味着当一只股票离开筛选程序时立即卖出,或者更确切地说,如果它离开筛选程序,等待一年再卖出?

    显然,作为一个人,我还不想卖东西,但我依赖的是模型,而不是直觉。

    2、我想我看到了2015年5月的一篇帖子,你说你正在写一本关于集中价值的新书……有什么更新吗?

    谢谢你所做的一切,
    抢劫

  16. “避免资金减少的最好方法是用指数对冲。现在可能是个好时机,因为市场价格昂贵,最流行的趋势信号(黄金/死亡十字和200移动平均线)正在下跌。”

    干得好,卡莱尔先生!

  17. 嗨,托拜厄斯,你好吗?

    我很喜欢你在Youtube上的演讲,刚刚买了你的书《深度价值》。我想把你们的系统付诸实践,但我想问你们是否计划筛选美国市场以外的更多市场。欧洲、拉丁美洲等地。

    谢谢

    法维奥

  18. 收单机构多-ve:

    我发现其中一个收单机构倍数(A/M)值为-ve(公司符号PCO),可能是有效的情况。然而,我们是否应该投资一家资产负债表价值为-ve的公司?

  19. Pingback: Into INTT: inTEST Corporation (NYSEMKT:INTT) | Stock Screener - The Acquirer's Multiple®

  20. Pingback: Johnny’s Real-Life Acquirers Multiple Portfolio – Update | Stock Screener - The Acquirer's Multiple®

  21. I just read the Acquirer’s Multiple while on a business trip. It was excellent and resonated with me because the approach is quite similar to my own. I will highly recommend it to other value investors.

  22. Hi Mr Carlisle,
    Just finished your A/M book and loved it.
    One question if the stock #1 lowest am pick is already up 25% to date do we still pick that stock?
    Thanks newbie am geek 🙂

  23. 嘿Tobias,

    I found your blog from the investors podcast and found your quantitative investing strategy quite interesting.

    I was researching a stock I’m willing to invest in and it had a very low PE (1,7) for the last four quarters but when I tried the acquirers multiple I got a negative enterprise value (mainly because they’ve made huge investments) and a negative operating income. (because they’ve depreciated their huge investments on their income statement)

    How should the Acquirers Multiple be calculated in this case?

    + What’s in your opinion the best book on stock/company valuation?

  24. Hi Tobias,

    Have you done any work on ranking the AM stocks and selecting only the highest momentum ones?

    谢谢

  25. Hi Tobias,

    I enjoy your work and think it’s really fantastic that you offer a free screener for large caps.

    I was hoping you could elaborate on your reasons for excluding financials and utilities in TAM Large Cap 1000?

    I do want some exposure to both sectors, do you think that your formula is a reliable way to find value there? If not, would a more traditional way to determine intrinsic value be better suited?

      1. 嗨,托拜厄斯,很高兴我找到了关于金融和公共事业的评论。

        有一些问题…

        #1、我们是否应该排除金融或公共事业?
        –使用EV/EBIT方法,目前将包括许多保险公司。
        –正如你上面所说,乔尔·格林布拉特还建议我们排除金融和公共事业。
        –但是,你也说过,你在接受彭博社采访时(我想是在你的ETF登录页上)加入了一些保险。

        #2、关于负EV(我阅读了您的链接和Investopedia上的文章),我的筛选发现,许多保险公司的EV为负,例如安联(635B)、安盛(446b)、保诚(300B)。如果我的数字正确,这是否意味着这些都是很好的购买?或者,不是真的,因为这些家伙太大了,不能参加激进活动?

        #很高兴看到你测试了动量,但这无助于回归。但是……只是想确定一下,我们正在谈论的是使用低EV/EBIT公司名单,这些公司倾向于动量(例如,过去6个月价格上涨超过10%)。没有区别吗???

        非常感谢你回答这里所有的问题…我会继续挖掘这里…

        谢谢

      2. 这与我之前的问题有关…

        如果我们想逆势而行,那么我们是否应该对金融和公用事业部门没有好感或恐惧?我们是否应该在PB比率上应用另一个简单的过滤器,以确保它们便宜…?
        但是,我看到你已经包括了BRK…它仍然是EV/EBIT的3.5倍…而且,我也喜欢BRK。但是,这不是重点……只是想知道我们如何调和这一点。
        另一方面,我想知道您是否考虑过使企业价值/息税前利润对金融和公用事业部门不那么敏感的潜在特征,有一天可能会“溢出”到其他部门…

  26. 托拜厄斯,读两周前的AM和定量值。伟大的阅读!快速提问-您是否仍将特许经营权公式作为AM战略的一部分来实施?

  27. Have you every tried investing in the stocks with the lowest AM based on technical analysis. When they break through resistance or “break out”?

    In your experience, what is the single most efficient method to decide when to sell?

  28. Hi Tobias
    After listening to you on the investors podcast, I’ve bought and read your new book, and have decided to gradually build a portfolio using the qcquirer’s multiple. I was hoping you could help med answer a questions.
    I live in Denmark where taxation on stocks are 42 % no matter how long i hold them. In your book you mention holding winners for a year +1 one day for tax benefits. Since I don’t have this option, is my best option just to buy the stocks with the best acquirer’s multible and sell them whenever they leave the screen, no matter loss or gain or are there a better way to maximize my portofolio?
    顺致敬意,
    汉斯

  29. Hi Tobias
    I’m sorry if you already answered this question, but I still have some doubts and I was hoping you could help.
    I have startede using the screeners and am building a portfolio. So far I have understood that I should keep the winners for a minimum of a year and then sell the them. If the winners still are in the screener after a year I should hold until they leave the screener.
    My question is when to sell the losers. I’ve read your book and the text in the link you send me above. But I am still not quite sure. Am I supposed to also wait a year and then sell if they are not in the screener or should I sell them as soon as they leave the screener, which could be after a shorter period of time? If the losers are still are in the screener after a year, I should hold until they leave, correct?
    请记住,我住在丹麦,无论我持有股票多久,股票收益税总是42%。任何损失都可以在未来收益中扣除税款。
    我希望你有时间帮助我理解这最后一点。
    非常感谢你
    顺致敬意,
    汉斯

  30. 嘿Tobias,
    我正在看免费的30个结果的筛选程序。看起来,其中一些业务可能是周期性的,由于处于商业周期的顶端,从指标来看,它们看起来很便宜。筛分机是否对此进行了调整?
    谢谢

  31. 你好Tobias和Johnny,

    我即将完成收单机构的多重账簿,并想对您的写作表示感谢。在我想开始用我辛苦赚来的钱在澳大利亚和印度市场上检验这一久经考验的理论之前,我想分享几天前读到的霍华德·马克斯的这篇文章。

    https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

    有一段话引起了我的注意:

    “量化投资者对其计算机进行编程,以模仿过去有利可图或未来有望有利可图的行为。换言之,他们为自己的计算机设定了生存的规则或公式。关键问题是,在一个竞争激烈、动态且相互关联的投资领域,盈利的途径是否可以通过公式捕捉,以及投资环境中的NGE(可能是由于公式的实施)不会否定公式的有效性。”

    你认为量化投资会比受贪婪/恐惧/焦虑/信心等驱动的市场参与者更有优势吗…。如何用一个简单的公式缩小范围?

    谨致问候,

    塔潘

  32. 嘿Tobias,

    我想知道你是否有ASX股票筛选的时间表?我已经成功地使用了你的方法一段时间了。但拥有ASX的筛选程序将是非常有价值的。

    谨致问候,

    基兰

  33. 嗨,多巴哥,

    我喜欢这本书!老实说,读了格林布拉特的书后,我也有同样的想法:如果你能做得一样好,如果不能做得更好,那就买便宜的东西,而不是把便宜和质量结合起来。很高兴你做了研究来支持那篇论文。这将是我在不知道经验证据的情况下思考并可能永远采取行动的理论问题之一。

    我认为自己是一个小盘股价值投资者,喜欢破产、现金充裕的公司。你的研究是否让你对那些倍数低于3或5的公司的业绩有了更深入的了解?还是高达7?非常感谢您的见解。

    谢谢

    1. 谢谢你的客气话,乔!让我看看,然后再回来找你。我的记忆是,回报率随着倍数的下降而上升——正如你所预期的那样——但机会越来越少,填补投资组合变得越来越困难。市场也变得越来越昂贵,因此,在80年代早期,可能有大量<3倍的机会,而现在则少得多,但<5倍的机会带来了可比的回报。我去看看,然后回来。

  34. Hi again Tobias,

    看完你的评论后,我能否澄清一下我是否正确理解了它们?

    –您的最佳业绩通常来自每年不超过20-30只股票的投资组合;
    –你应该购买排名前1-5的TAM股票,直到你拥有20-30的投资组合;
    – then hold it for 12 months;
    – unless you’re selling the losers, which in that case, sell them before 12 months

    Also to clarify, despite <3 being rare these days, if a <3 appears should you still buy it?

    Thanks so much,
    Jesse

  35. Hi again Tobias,

    Just another question with the TAM – does the formula only take into account current years’ earnings or 5-year/10-year average earnings?

    The reason I ask this question is if we take MU (Micron) for example. In 2018 they made $15.2B netting them a TAM of ~2.5, but in previous years they only made $3b, or even less $1b, netting them a TAM multiple of 7 – 38.

    Obviously 2.5 is good, but 7 – 38 is bad, so what number do we use here? This years’ operating income? The lowest operating income? The 5-year average? The 10-year average?

    Cheers,
    Jesse

  36. Hi,
    One thing that left me wondering is that on what basis do stock get put on the list and off the list? I’ve noticed that with in the last 6 months which I’ve been following you the allocation has changed a few times. This is just a wild ques but does it have to do with the change in ROE or Ev/Ebitda.
    Many thanks in advance.

    谨致问候,
    Philip

  37. Hi Tobias,

    Read your book Deep Value. Found it a very informative read. Lead me to watch many of your videos as well.

    What is your opinion on Piotroski Score ( F Score). In your experience how useful have you found incorporating the F Score while constructing a Portfolio? Does it affect the Portfolio’s performance in a good way?

    Thanks & Regards,
    Nisarg Ganatra, CFA
    India

  38. Tobias, is there going to be refreshed backtest for 2017 and more particularly for 2018?

    thanks.

  39. Hi Tobias,

    Wondering how do you think about shares with very high dividend yields that are within the screener at very low AC’s. Should any additional consideration be given to them?

    谢谢

  40. 嗨,托拜厄斯,谢谢你回来。有趣……为什么?鉴于这些都是被低估的头寸,通常需要数年才能升值,那么高股息难道不能被视为持有人获得的额外“溢价”吗?或者是这些股息后来减少了%,因此,资本增长真的是提供显著优于dvid%的主要引擎吗?

  41. 我为收购方的倍数购买了这本有声读物,这本书很有启发性和耐人寻味。作者向读者保证,large cap 1000 screener将永远免费。然而,当你打开屏幕时,你就会知道作者说的是关于“永远自由”的真相。我不介意订阅,但我希望他说的话能成立。

  42. Hi Tobias,

    我刚看完你的书,注册了你的筛选程序。好书!我有几个问题。我正在进行尽职调查,并查看了一家顶级的所有市值股票(Immersion Corp,IMMR)。这是一家触觉/触觉技术制造商(我想是它的专利许可人吧?)。我知道在这本书中,你多次警告不要参加没有产品的科学项目或玩具,最后至少没有过去良好的历史收入记录。查看IMMR并观看该公司的一些视频,这家公司似乎不生产产品,而是将其专利授权给其他公司,并卷入了几起诉讼,从而产生了收入?这家公司符合你对“远离科学”项目或未开发产品的定义吗?此外,在另一个网站上(塔尔·戴维森对格林布拉特魔法公式的分析),他将IMMR的五年ROC定为-89%。 https://taldavidson.com/magic-formula-stocks-screener/ I know you mention trying to look to a consistent return on capital in the last chapter for earnings and looking at companies from a business perspective. Would this company still fit your acquirers model with this less than consistent ROC. I know these are risky out of favor stocks but I’m still trying to get my heard around the model. Also the first stock on the list (SIGA, Siga technologies) seems to be a one drug pharmaceutical that obtained a single large contract from the government for it’s smallpox drug? There doesn’t seem to be a consistent revenue stream here either or any past history? Would this stock also fit the model on a closer analysis and would the Acquirers model still be purchasing these stocks after this closer look. (I know there’s varying perspectives on the closer look that you mention in the book, quoting Amazon Chief Bezos saying sometimes it’s better to only know 70% of the information rather than 90%). Any thoughts appreciated.

  43. Hi Tobias,

    I notice 2 stocks, RFP and EXPR, have been dropped from the screen in the past week. Is it because they have been pushed out of the top 30? Or have they changed and there’s now something wrong with them to disqualify them from the screen altogether? (eg: high short interest, new quarterly report data failed your forensic accounting screens)

    Basically, should I sell them? Personally, I usually cut my losses if something fundamental changes for the worse after I buy. I am in a country with no Capital Gains Tax.

  44. 你好
    我刚看完你的新书《收单机构的多元化》。
    非常好。
    感谢您分享您的研究成果。
    你有2017年和2018年的业绩数字吗?
    如果是,请转发给我。
    在购买您的服务之前,我必须进行尽职调查。
    非常感谢。
    亨利

  45. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aixKQ0grZcs&list=WL&index=19&t=1594s

    时间:26:48
    股票行情/~价格(2018年8月10日)/~价格(2019年8月16日)/价格比率
    AABA/68/69.90/1.03
    DBX/30/17.26/0.58
    方程/22/19.85/0.9
    点/190/146/0.77
    BDX/252/246/0.97
    CMG/502/809/1.61
    CLX/147/159/1.08
    快照/12.17/16/1.08
    TSLA/335/235/0.7
    SGEN/74/76/1.02

    总比率=~ 1(标准普尔500指数=~ 1)

    我从格林布拉茨先生那里了解了这一点和类似的方法。我使用的数据远远少于专家。我无法确认退货。然而,读了你的书,卡莱尔先生和格林布拉特先生,相信价值(基本)数据分析,我承认我找不到不一致的原因。

    我希望你能对此发表评论。

  46. Hi Tobias,

    您是否在收单机构的多次回溯测试中排除/避免金融(或任何其他)部门?
    在现实生活中应用公式时,我们是否也应该排除/避免它们?

    射线

  47. Hi Tobias,

    我是一名学生,没有太多的资本可以投资。我的第一次交易风险只有500英镑。我的AM投资组合可能会非常不平衡。您在筛选器上对每只股票的投资金额大致相等,这有多重要?是否有可能在不持有大量股票的情况下执行此策略?

    祝您一切顺利,
    帕迪

  48. 新的下班后播客很棒,我认为你、杰克和比尔是一个很好的团队,一定会让他们来的。我很高兴看到其他人和我一样对发现文艺复兴技术所能创造的东西感兴趣。我在另一个播客上听到的一个有趣的理论是,文艺复兴能够在长期接触中锁定某些类型的数据集,只有他们才能访问这些数据集。我不知道那个数据集可能是什么,但仍然有一个有趣的理论。我期待着将来有更多的播客。

    1. 谢谢Ryan!我已经录下了我和格雷戈里·扎克曼的聊天记录。他写道,他们发现异常情况比其他任何人都好,或者至少比其他任何人都好,然后向异常情况投入大量资金,以便有机会套利,让其他人找不到它。衣冠楚楚的

  49. 你的播客很棒。我很好奇为什么录音和发帖之间会有这样的延迟。上一次是在3月31日录制的,大约十天没有上升。在这种疯狂的市场中,它使市场评论过时。谢谢

  50. Hi Tobias,
    I have your book AM and now subscribed to the site. I have a question about the small and micro cap screen – all week SPRT was at the top of the screen, but now it is completely off the list. They have not reported any financials since March 18th so I don’t know why they fell off the list … the stock price fell enough that it ended the week May 1st with a negative Acquirers Multiple.

    Do stocks get kicked off the list if they become net-nets?

    Also any thoughts about adding the TSX Venture? It’s tough up here man, TSX is all oil stonks.

    1. Stocks fall out of the screen because earnings are updated or they deteriorate on distress, earnings manipulation of fraud measures.

      I like the idea of including more Canada stocks from the TSX venture. I’ll do that in the next database refresh this Sunday.

  51. Do you anticipate a lot of noise/turnover with Q2 earnings reports coming out and all of the Covid induced revenue destruction? Did you backtest much turnover would have happened during previous sharp downturns like the 2009 crash?

    I guess it’s more of an implementation question thing if someone was to use say the top 20 of 30 for a particular screen it could get noisy out there …. so far I’ve just been using for ideas/research purposes and to pick out a few good net-nets from the micro screen. Pretty sweet tool!

  52. ^ should have put another comment to what i wrote above and that is that if something falls out of the screen you don’t know if it’s the 31st stock in the screen (which is not a big deal) vs it’s now a dog b/c of some other reason

    因此,如果由于新冠肺炎导致前30名中有大量的营业额变得更难实施,比如说前20名投资组合,因为你必须仔细研究每一个投资组合以及为什么会失败…。股价上涨vs可怕的短期新冠病毒收益vs其他原因/欺诈筛选

  53. 在过去的6个月里,我有机会通过股票筛选师将书中的方法付诸实践。我发现,正如你所说,一些股票将继续持有x5(如Stamps.com),而其他股票将继续持有,而且不会有太大的作用……然而,看到这么多股票继续持有,而少数股票却能带来惊人的回报,令人沮丧。所以,以筛选器为基础,我开始从筛选器中寻找股票的动量。我可能会损失几个百分点,因为我从一开始就没有投资,但我仍然获得了巨大的回报。目前,我正在关注REGI、FVE(艰难财务状况下的转变)、FTI、GPP……这些最近都出现了变化……类似于邮票。通用域名格式。我也在关注收入增长和其他因素,但与筛选器一起衡量动力确实对我很有用。只是想分享…

    1. 嘿,科尔顿,实际上我也有同样的问题。但是,托拜厄斯提到,这无助于回归。所以,很高兴听到你在这方面的经验。我想在我的选择中加入一个6个月的动力,这也是基于《华尔街仍然有效》一书中的想法(还没读过)

      我想知道,考虑到回归均值的性质,从长远来看,我们的尝试是否是徒劳的。(例如,我们可能过度推测上升趋势和下降趋势,或者没有趋势。但是,我猜使用EV/EBIT应该已经建立了一定的安全边际,所以稍微调整一下应该仍然可以/提供类似的回报。

  54. Just finished reading the AM book. Impressed and intrigued to try it out. Would love to know each of the screen performed today. Would you please email that to me?

    I have two questions: 1) Holding period, 2) the use of margin.

    1a. Does following this strategy means every stock should be rebalanced / replaced once a year (assuming all of the stocks are the purchased at the same time)? I guess the idea of not holding longer than a year is to mitigate the impact of mean reversion? So, it’s better to cut the loss and cash in the profit once a year. So, we don’t double down on losers or keep the winners that might be wonderful companies (since that just adds to the human error. I guess Joel Greenblatt’s test already proved that model-alone performed better than the model + pros.)

    1b. You mentioned that “Given time, many businesses turn out to be less scary, bad, or boring than they seem at first. The reason is mean reversion.” Does this mean we would potential buy the same stock that we bought this year if it reappear in the list next year? This is our way to “giving it time” if that stock is still in the list.

    It seems we all have different ways of applying it (e.g., what and how to invest). Will be great to know how others are applying it if anyone cares to share.

    2) I think Warren said in his shareholder letter that margin only accelerate something. I guess it’s a matter of interest rate, margin level, and risk appetite. Wonder what your view on this is. Also curious about whether asset managers have to report on the use of margin?

    Thanks so much.
    SJ公司

  55. I actually have a third question…

    Does the portfolio of 20-30 stocks have to come from the same country? What about a portfolio of 15 stocks from US-listed companies and 15 from JP-listed or HK-listed? Will this change the result? Or, should I look at this as two portfolio? Or, this actually count as widening the universe?

    谢谢…

  56. 另一个关于金融和公用事业部门收购方倍数(EV/EBIT)应用的问题…

    如果我们应该逆市出击,那么我们应该对金融和公用事业部门没有好感或恐惧。不但是,您提到,企业价值/息税前利润在这些行业没有真正意义……我们是否应该对PB比率应用另一个简单的过滤器,以确保它们便宜…?鉴于这些行业可能正处于周期的下行阶段,这可能会恢复到平均水平…?

    (我知道你已经包括了BRK……它仍然是企业价值/息税前利润的3.5倍……而且,我也喜欢BRK。但是,这不是重点……只是想知道我们如何协调这一点。)

    另一方面,我想知道您是否考虑过使企业价值/息税前利润对金融和公用事业部门不那么敏感的潜在特征,有一天可能会“溢出”到其他部门…

    再次感谢。

  57. 嗨,伙计们。我几乎是一个新手,但我拼命地努力学习,不要重蹈覆辙。总的来说,我喜欢你的播客,但这是一个很难听的播客——你从来不解释任何事情。我会把听你的播客比作偷听一些内部人士的对话,这听起来很有趣,但大部分都是我自己搞不懂的。例如,你经常嘲笑一些疯狂的估值,其中股票交易量是自由现金流的X倍,但FCF的可接受或“正常”倍数范围是什么?息税前利润或息税折旧摊销前利润也是如此——我可以自己查找和计算这些数字(我也有),但这些比率对现实世界有什么影响?
    顺便说一句,我很喜欢你的收单机构的多重账簿,我现在可以自己计算这个倍数了——但什么是合理的数字,什么是“太多”的数字?无论如何,我想你可以偶尔把它带到现实中去,并提供一些教育。非常感谢。

  58. Hello Tobias,
    I have bought the audio book of your book: the aquirer multiple via Audible. However I don’t have access to charts and figures… Is it possible to get access to them? Thanks

  59. Hello Tobias,

    Thank you for all the hard work and the great books.

    After reading your TAM book I realised simply buying an index etf would not be enough for me any more, so I set up a separate account and started applying your strategy using the Large Cap screener as a starter. Results are way better than the index these past 6 months.

    Next, I tried to implement your Large Cap Screener using Portfolio123 (list of stocks is almost like yours but not exactly) and did a backtest for the past 10 years holding 30 stocks and rebalancing annually. The screener underperformed SnP500 a lot. I realise you put a lot more work into it than simply picking the top 10% of companies and applying TAM, but still I got very disappointed by the results (Total Return 260% vs 90% for the decade).

    I have heard you say multiple times that value has underperformed in the past decade, but I could not find any hard numbers for this time period about TAM. Would you happen to have any backtesting results for these past 10 years ?

    Thank you very much,
    Dimitris.

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